by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2018 01:16:00 PM
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
I expect some really poor analysis after the advance GDP report is released on Friday (the Consensus is the BEA will report real annualized GDP of 4.2% for Q2).
Below is a table of the top 20 quarters since Q1 2000. A 4.2% quarter would be the 9th best since Q1 2000.
As I've noted before, based on demographics, 2% is the new 4% (that is just simple arithmetic). I've also noted that a large government program (such as a war, or a tax cut) can give a short term boost to GDP. So Q2 should be fine, but not a game change.
|Top 20 GDP Quarters since 2000|
Real GDP, Annualized Rate