by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2018 01:16:00 PM

I expect some really poor analysis after the advance GDP report is released on Friday (the Consensus is the BEA will report real annualized GDP of 4.2% for Q2).

Below is a table of the top 20 quarters since Q1 2000. A 4.2% quarter would be the 9th best since Q1 2000.

As I've noted before, based on demographics, 2% is the new 4% (that is just simple arithmetic).   I've also noted that a large government program (such as a war, or a tax cut) can give a short term boost to GDP.   So Q2 should be fine, but not a game change.

Top 20 GDP Quarters since 2000 Real GDP, Annualized Rate
	GDP	Year	Quarter	President
1	7.8%	2000	Q2	Clinton
2	6.9%	2003	Q3	G.W.Bush
3	5.2%	2014	Q3	Obama
4	4.9%	2006	Q1	G.W.Bush
5	4.8%	2003	Q4	G.W.Bush
6	4.6%	2011	Q4	Obama
7	4.6%	2014	Q2	Obama
8	4.3%	2005	Q1	G.W.Bush
9	4.0%	2013	Q4	Obama
10	3.9%	2009	Q4	Obama
11	3.9%	2010	Q2	Obama
12	3.8%	2003	Q2	G.W.Bush
13	3.7%	2002	Q1	G.W.Bush
14	3.7%	2004	Q3	G.W.Bush
15	3.5%	2004	Q4	G.W.Bush
16	3.4%	2005	Q3	G.W.Bush
17	3.2%	2006	Q4	G.W.Bush
18	3.2%	2015	Q1	Obama
19	3.2%	2017	Q3	Trump
20	3.1%	2007	Q2	G.W.Bush