Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Top Twenty GDP Quarters since 2000

by Bill McBride on 7/24/2018 01:16:00 PM

I expect some really poor analysis after the advance GDP report is released on Friday (the Consensus is the BEA will report real annualized GDP of 4.2% for Q2).

Below is a table of the top 20 quarters since Q1 2000. A 4.2% quarter would be the 9th best since Q1 2000.

As I've noted before, based on demographics, 2% is the new 4% (that is just simple arithmetic).   I've also noted that a large government program (such as a war, or a tax cut) can give a short term boost to GDP.   So Q2 should be fine, but not a game change.


Top 20 GDP Quarters since 2000
Real GDP, Annualized Rate
GDPYearQuarterPresident
17.8%2000Q2Clinton
26.9%2003Q3G.W.Bush
35.2%2014Q3Obama
44.9%2006Q1G.W.Bush
54.8%2003Q4G.W.Bush
64.6%2011Q4Obama
74.6%2014Q2Obama
84.3%2005Q1G.W.Bush
94.0%2013Q4Obama
103.9%2009Q4Obama
113.9%2010Q2Obama
123.8%2003Q2G.W.Bush
133.7%2002Q1G.W.Bush
143.7%2004Q3G.W.Bush
153.5%2004Q4G.W.Bush
163.4%2005Q3G.W.Bush
173.2%2006Q4G.W.Bush
183.2%2015Q1Obama
193.2%2017Q3Trump
203.1%2007Q2G.W.Bush