Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

by Bill McBride on 7/17/2018 04:51:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in June, down 1.5% from May’s preliminary pace and down 2.7% from last June’s seasonally adjusted rate. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY decline, reflecting this June’s lower business-day count compared to last June.

Local realtor/MLS data, as well as tracking sources, indicate that while the inventory of existing homes for sale in June was down from a year ago, the YOY decline in June was less than it was in May. I project that the NAR’s estimate of the number of existing homes for sale at the end of June will be 1.85 million, unchanged from May and down 4.1% from a year earlier.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up about 6.0% from last June. Note, however, that of late the NAR’s median existing home sales prices have shown lower YOY gains than local realtor/MLS data would have suggested, for reasons that are not clear.

CR Note: Existing home sales for June are scheduled to be released by the NAR on Wednesday, July 23rd.