Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.4% year-over-year in May

by Bill McBride on 7/31/2018 09:23:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Rise in Home Prices Remains Steady at 6.4% According to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.4% annual gain in May, remaining the same as in the previous month. The 10City Composite annual increase came in at 6.1%, down from 6.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.5% year-over-year gain, down from 6.7% in the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In May, Seattle led the way with a 13.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 12.6% increase and San Francisco with a 10.9% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending May 2018 versus the year ending April 2018.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 1.1% in May. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase in May. The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted 0.1% and 0.2% month-over-month increases, respectively. Nineteen of 20 cities reported increases in May before seasonal adjustment, while 16 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

“Home prices continue to rack up gains two to three times greater than the inflation rate,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The year-over-year increases in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index have topped 5% every month since August 2016. Unlike the boom-bust period surrounding the financial crisis, price gains are consistent across the 20 cities tracked in the release; currently, the range of the largest to smallest price change is 10 percentage points compared to a 20 percentage point range since 2001, and a 25 percentage point range between 2006 and 2009. Not only are prices rising consistently, they are doing so across the country.

“Continuing price increases appear to be affecting other housing statistics. Sales of existing single family homes – the market covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices – peaked last November and have declined for three months in a row. The number of pending home sales is drifting lower as is the number of existing homes for sale. Sales of new homes are also down and housing starts are flattening. Affordability – a measure based on income, mortgage rates and home prices – has gotten consistently worse over the last 18 months. All these indicators suggest that the combination of rising home prices and rising mortgage rates are beginning to affect the housing market.”
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 1.0% from the peak, and up 0.1% in May (SA).

The Composite 20 index is 2.2% above the bubble peak, and up 0.2% (SA) in May.

The National index is 9.5% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.4% (SA) in May.  The National index is up 48.1% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.2% compared to May 2017.  The Composite 20 SA is up 6.5% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 6.4% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 18 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

I'll have more later.