by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2016 02:45:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Single-Family Home Production in 2015: Small Number, Big Homes

At the beginning of June the Census Bureau released its annual report for 2015 on the characteristics of new privately-owned residential structures, including but not limited to square footage, number of bedrooms and bathrooms, type of wall material, and sales prices. In terms of single-family homes completed last year, one of the more striking aspects of the report was the incredibly small number of modestly-sized single-family homes completed last year. Below is a summary of homes completed from 1999 to 2015 by square-footage ranges.

Of the estimated 648,000 single-family homes completed last year, just 136,000, or 21%, were homes with square footage of less than 1,800. The number of “moderately-sized” single-family homes completed in 2015 was little changed 2011, when overall single-family home completions hit at a “record” low. In sharp contrast, the number of homes with 3,000 or more square feet of floor area last year was up 76% from 2011’s level.

Single-Family Homes Completed by Square Footage
	Number of houses (in thousands) by square feet
Year	Total	Under 1,400	1,400 to 1,799	1,800 to 2,399	2,400 to 2,999	3,000 to 3,999	4,000 or more
1999	1,270	197	276	370	211	157	59
2000	1,242	178	268	363	208	158	66
2001	1,256	167	261	359	222	172	75
2002	1,325	172	283	375	240	180	76
2003	1,386	179	279	401	251	199	77
2004	1,532	186	311	433	291	219	92
2005	1,636	165	317	467	306	262	119
2006	1,654	164	312	452	326	263	137
2007	1,218	120	220	335	227	202	115
2008	819	104	146	219	138	127	84
2009	520	66	106	139	89	72	48
2010	496	66	96	135	87	75	37
2011	447	57	84	111	79	76	40
2012	483	53	83	126	93	88	40
2013	569	46	89	154	115	110	56
2014	620	48	87	162	131	127	66
2015	648	49	87	171	138	132	72

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a chart showing the historical median square footage of single-family homes completed.

It is a little difficult to compare the distribution of single-family homes completed in recent years relative to earlier decades, because Census has changed the square-footage ranges in its reports over time. However, from 1999 to 2007 there are data for both the “old” ranges and the “new” ranges, and by looking at some historical relationships one can approximate completions for various ranges over time, which I have done in the table below.

Average Annual Single-Family Homes Completed by Square Feeet of Floor Area
	Total	<1,600	1,600- 1,999	2000- 2,399	2,400- 2,999	3,000+
1973-79	1,140	574	259	158	94	55
1980-89	978	453	207	134	108	75
1990-99	1,070	319	242	189	170	151
2000-09	1,259	269	261	224	230	274
2010	496	111	101	85	87	112
2011	447	96	86	70	79	116
2012	483	92	91	79	93	128
2013	569	88	104	97	115	166
2014	620	89	106	102	131	193
2015	648	90	109	108	138	204
(LEHC estimates based on Census data. Totals may not add up due to rounding).

There have been numerous articles over the last year or two discussing some of the possible reasons for the dearth of construction of moderately-sized (and priced) single-family homes over the past few years, and I won’t today discuss the “why’s.” However, it seems highly unlikely that single-family starts (and completions) will move back up to more “historic” levels unless there is a rebound in the construction of “smaller,” and less expensive, homes.