by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2015 01:16:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

For the eleventh consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in October were up 2.0% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 24.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 11.0% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices are increasing a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 3.5% through August (about double the pace for 2014).

October Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Oct-08	5,384	---	1,348	25.0%	55,7031	---
Oct-09	8,121	50.8%	2,688	33.1%	39,312	-29.4%
Oct-10	6,591	-18.8%	2,800	42.5%	45,252	15.1%
Oct-11	7,561	14.7%	3,336	44.1%	27,266	-39.7%
Oct-12	7,020	-7.2%	3,081	43.9%	22,702	-16.7%
Oct-13	6,038	-14.0%	1,910	31.6%	26,267	15.7%
Oct-14	6,186	2.5%	1,712	27.7%	27,760	5.7%
Oct-15	6,308	2.0%	1,570	24.9%	24,702	-11.0%
1 October 2008 probably includes pending listings