Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Wednesday: FOMC Statement

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2014 07:15:00 PM

From Tim Duy: FOMC Meeting

Regarding the statement, here is what I anticipate:
1. The general description of the economy will remain essentially unchanged, expanding at a "moderate pace." ...

2. That said, they will mention they remain watchful of foreign growth.

3. They will acknowledge the further decline in unemployment rates yet retain the view that labor market indicators still suggest underutilization of resources. I would not be surprised by specific mention of low wage growth as evidence of underutilization.

4. I expect the Fed will acknowledge the decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations, but ultimately dismiss those measures for now in favor of stable of survey based measures. ...

5. I expect the risks to growth and employment will remain balanced, and the risk of persistently low inflation will continue to be "somewhat diminished."

6. They will announce the end of the asset purchase program, but emphasize continued reinvestment of principle and that the sizable asset holdings will continue to provide support for the recovery.

7. They will note that despite the end of asset purchases, such purchases remain in the monetary toolbox and could be revived if conditions warranted.

8. The "considerable time" language will remain. ...

9. I expect at least one dissent.
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 2:00 PM, the FOMC Meeting Statement. The FOMC is expected to announce the end of QE3 asset purchases at this meeting.