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Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Trulia: Asking House Prices up 7.8% year-over-year in August

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2014 12:09:00 PM

From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: Slow and Steady Now Winning the Home-Price Race

Nationally, the month-over-month increase in asking home prices rose to 1.0% in August, up a bit from 0.7% in July. Asking prices rose 7.8% year-over-year, slower than one year ago, in August 2013, when asking prices were up 9.9% year-over-year. At the local level, asking prices rose year-over-year in 96 of the 100 largest U.S. metros.
Foreclosures have shaped where and when home prices have recovered. Foreclosed homes tend to depress neighboring home values and sell at a discount. But once most of the foreclosures in a market are sold, then overall inventory tightens – especially at the low end – giving home prices a boost. In states with a “non-judicial” foreclosure process (such as California, Michigan, and Texas), foreclosures don’t have to go through the courts. That means homes in non-judicial states are foreclosed and sold more quickly than in states with a “judicial” process (such as Florida, Illinois, and New York). As a result, the foreclosure wave cleared sooner and faster in non-judicial states, and housing markets in those states got an earlier and sharper price boost.

But now, even judicial states are seeing the light at the end of the foreclosure tunnel and are getting their own price boost. In August 2014, asking prices on for-sale homes excluding foreclosures were up 6.9% year-over-year in metros in judicial states, only slightly behind the 7.8% increase in metros in non-judicial states. In contrast, in August 2013, the year-over-year price gain was 14.1% in non-judicial states and just 5.1% in judicial states.
Rents Accelerate, Rising 6.3% Year-over-Year
In five of the 25 largest rental markets, rents rose more than 10% year-over-year. Three of these five are in northern California: Sacramento, San Francisco, and Oakland have the highest rent increases in the country, followed by Denver and Miami. Rents rose faster year-over-year in August than three months ago, in May, in 20 of the 25 largest rental markets. In August compared to May, rents accelerated most in Sacramento while cooling in San Diego.
emphasis added
Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and this suggests further house price increases over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.