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Saturday, May 31, 2014

Schedule for Week of June 1st

by Calculated Risk on 5/31/2014 08:47:00 AM

This will be a busy week for economic data with several key reports including the May employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, May vehicle sales on Tuesday, and the April Trade Deficit and May ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday.

The Fed's Q1 Flow of Funds report will be released Thursday.

Note: The ECB will probably ease monetary policy on Thursday.

----- Monday, June 2nd -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for an increase to 55.5 from 54.9 in April.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in April at 54.9%. The employment index was at 54.7%, and the new orders index was at 55.1%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, June 3rd -----

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for May. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be increase to 16.1 million SAAR in May from 16.0 million in April (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the April sales rate.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in April orders.

----- Wednesday, June 4th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 210,000 payroll jobs added in May, down from 220,000 in April.

U.S. Trade Exports Imports8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau.

Imports increased and exports decreased in February.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $41.0 billion in April from $40.4 billion in March.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for a reading of 55.3, up from 55.2 in April. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, June 5th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 310 thousand from 300 thousand.

Early: The ECB meets in Frankfurt. From Nomura:
We expect the ECB to deliver a package of measures on 5 June to ease monetary policy. We expect a 10bp cut to all key interest rates, taking the refi rate down to 0.15%, the deposit rate negative for the first time to -0.10% and the marginal lending facility rate down to 0.65%. We also expect an extension of the forward guidance on liquidity provisions, with the fixed-rate full-allotment procedure extended by a further 12 months to at least the end of June 2016. We also expect the ECB to launch a targeted LTRO programme in June (60% probability), to address credit weakness and risks to the recovery from this channel.
Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for May. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

12:00 PM: Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, June 6th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for May. The consensus is for an increase of 213,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May, down from the 288,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in April.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.4% in May. 

Percent Job Losses During RecessionsThis graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through April.

The economy has added 9.2 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (8.6 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are 406 thousand more private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007, but total employment is still 113 thousand below the pre-recession peak.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for April from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for credit to increase $15.5 billion.