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Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Richmond and Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Actiivty Increases "Mildly"

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2014 10:30:00 AM

Manufacturing activity in the Richmond region increased "mildly" at the same rate in May as in April, and activity increased in the Dallas region at a "slower pace" in May.

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Sector Activity Increased Mildly; Hiring Continued to Strengthen

Overall, manufacturing conditions improved. The composite index for manufacturing held steady at a reading of 7 during the past two months. The index for shipments gained four points, ending at 10, while the index for new orders softened seven points, finishing at a reading of 3. Manufacturing employment picked up this month; the May indicator advanced six points to a reading of 10.
emphasis added
And from the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Grows but at a Slower Pace
Texas factory activity increased again in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 24.7 to 11, indicating output grew but not strongly as in April.

The new orders index fell sharply to 3.8, hitting its lowest level this year. ... The general business activity index remained elevated but moved down from 11.7 to 8. ... Labor market indicators reflected a tapering of growth in employment levels and workweek length. The May employment index dropped to 2.9, its lowest reading in nearly a year.
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (dashed green, through May), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through May) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through April (right axis).

All of the regional surveys showed expansion in May, and it seems likely the ISM index will increase again in May.  The ISM index for May will be released Monday, June 2nd.