Monday, February 03, 2014

ISM Manufacturing index declines sharply in January to 51.3 due to "adverse weather conditions"

by Bill McBride on 2/03/2014 10:00:00 AM

The ISM manufacturing index indicated slower expansion in January than in December. The PMI was at 51.3% in January, down from 56.5% in December. The employment index was at 52.3%, down from 55.8%, and the new orders index was at 51.2%, down from 64.4% in December.

From the Institute for Supply Management: January 2014 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the eighth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 56th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The January PMI® registered 51.3 percent, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from December's seasonally adjusted reading of 56.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.2 percent, a significant decrease of 13.2 percentage points from December's seasonally adjusted reading of 64.4 percent. The Production Index registered 54.8 percent, a decrease of 6.9 percentage points compared to December's seasonally adjusted reading of 61.7 percent. Inventories of raw materials decreased by 3 percentage points to 44 percent, its lowest reading since December 2012 when the Inventories Index registered 43 percent. A number of comments from the panel cite adverse weather conditions as a factor negatively impacting their businesses in January, while others reflect optimism and increasing volumes in the early stages of 2014."
emphasis added
ISM PMIClick on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

This was well below expectations of 56.0%. A weak report, but probably weather related