by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2014 07:53:00 PM

First, here is a minor indicator that I follow, from ATA: Winter Weather Pushed ATA Truck Tonnage Index Down 4.3% in January

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 4.3% in January, after edging 0.8% lower in December. In January, the index equaled 124.4 (2000=100) versus 130.0 in December. The all-time high was in November 2013 (131.0). Compared with January 2013, the SA index increased 1.2%.
...
“Like most economic indicators, truck tonnage was negatively impacted by bad winter weather in January,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The thing about truck freight is that it’s difficult to catch up. Drivers are governed by hours-of-service regulations and trucks are limited to trailer lengths and total weights, thus it is nearly impossible to recoup the days lost due to bad storms.”

As a result, Costello said January will be a tough month to gauge.

“January wasn’t just one storm, it was several across a large part of the country. Therefore, I wouldn’t panic from the largest monthly drop in two years," Costello said. "I’ve heard from many fleets that freight was good, in-between storms. The fundamentals for truck freight still look good.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is up 1.2% year-over-year.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.70 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in December were at a 4.87 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.67 million SAAR.