Thursday, December 12, 2013

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increase in October, Distress Sales Lowest Level in Five Years

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2013 11:56:00 AM

Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. 

From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices Resume Upward Trend in October

The two broadest measures of aggregate pricing for commercial properties within the CCRSI—the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index—advanced by 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively, in October 2013. ... On an annual basis, the equal weighted CCRSI Composite Index has risen 7.4% while the value-weighted Composite CCRSI Index has advanced by 9.5%.
...
The percentage of commercial property selling at distressed prices dropped to 10.7% in October 2013 from nearly 20% one year earlier, the lowest level since December 2008. ... Distress levels vary widely by market, however. In housing bust markets including, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Orlando, distress deals still accounted for more than 20% of all sales activity in the third quarter of 2013, suggesting there is still significant room for price appreciation in those markets. Conversely, in healthier markets such as San Francisco, Boston, Los Angeles, Seattle and New York, the share of distressed sales fell into the single digits in the third quarter of 2013.
emphasis added
Commercial Real Estate Prices Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoStar shows the Value-Weighted and Equal-Weighted indexes.  CoStar reported that the Value-Weighted index is up 50.3% from the bottom (showing the earlier and stronger demand for higher end properties) and up 9.5% year-over-year. However the Equal-Weighted index is only up 17.0% from the bottom, and up 7.4% year-over-year.

Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.