Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Richmond Fed: Manufacturing improved in November

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2013 11:45:00 AM

From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity

Manufacturing in the Fifth District improved in November, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders rose. Employment, average workweek, and wages also picked up this month. Capacity utilization and the backlog of orders flattened, while vendor lead-time rose at a slower pace.

Manufacturers were optimistic about their future business prospects. Firms anticipated shipments and the volume of new orders would grow more quickly during the next six months.
...

The composite index of manufacturing strengthened, climbing to a reading of 13 in November following last month's reading of 1. The index of shipments improved 18 points, ending at 16, and the index for new orders advanced 15 points compared to a month ago. In addition, the index for the number of employees gained two points, finishing at a reading of 6.

Manufacturing employment edged up this month, moving the index to 6 from 4. The average workweek grew solidly, pushing that index up 13 points to end at a reading of 12. Additionally, average wages grew more quickly, reaching an index of 15 compared to last month's reading of 9.
emphasis added
This is the last of the regional surveys.  Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (dashed green, through November), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through November) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through October (right axis).

The NY Fed survey indicated contraction in November, but the other surveys showed expansion.  The ISM index for November will be released Monday, December 2nd and will probably decline from the 56.4 reading in October (but still show expansion).