Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Wednesday: Office Vacancy Survey, ADP Employment Report

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2013 07:45:00 PM

Still waiting for the House (the House remains the key downside risk for the economy).

From Merill Lynch:

Judging by today's positive market reaction it would appear that shutting down the government is a good thing. However, key to understanding the market reaction is that this forces Congress to deal with the issues now, as opposed to waiting until the last minute later this month when the country approaches the debt ceiling. Clearly Congress will now be under increasing pressure from constituents to find a solution and, as was discussed on a BofAML client conference call today, this likely means a lower probability of another fight later this month about the debt ceiling. Hence the fiscal uncertainties could be resolved quicker.
I hope they are correct. We can handle a shutdown, but not paying our bills is something else.

At least some "non-partisan" groups are recognizing one group is to blame as opposed to the usual "both parties". This is from Fixthedebt.org (Erskin, Bowles, Bloomberg, and other Republicans and Democrats):
"This avoidable outcome highlights a dysfunction that threatens to spill over to other areas – like raising the debt ceiling – where failure to reach agreement would not just be disruptive, but have disastrous economic consequences both at home and abroad.

The focus of some House Republicans on policies unrelated to the central funding of government, instead of on policies to improve the debt, has diverted conversations from bipartisan solutions to keep the government open."
emphasis added
Voters will probably forget the shutdown - unfortunately - but there is real pain.  I'll be missing some key data like the employment report on Friday, or construction spending today, but that is nothing compared to the suffering of many others.  Why?

• Early, Reis Q3 2013 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 175,000 payroll jobs added in September, down from 176,000 in August.

• At 3:30 PM, Speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Brief Welcoming Remarks, At the Federal Reserve/Conference of State Bank Supervisors Community Banking Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis