Thursday, June 27, 2013

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 346,000

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2013 08:36:00 AM

NOTE: The BEA reported on Personal Income and Outlays for May.

Personal income increased $69.4 billion, or 0.5 percent ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $29.0 billion, or 0.3 percent.

The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in May ... The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent
The consensus was for a 0.2% increase in personal income in May, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. I'll have more on this report soon.

The DOL reports:
In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 346,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 348,500.
The previous week was revised up from 354,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 345,750.

The 4-week average has mostly moved sideways over the last few months.  Claims were close to the 345,000 consensus forecast.