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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays for May, Weekly Unemployment Claims

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2013 09:59:00 PM

From Cardiff Garcia at the FT Alphaville: Rates and the US housing market

We don’t mean to be entirely dismissive of the prevailing higher rates. The economy didn’t need any shade thrown at one of its few bright spots, especially with the continued fiscal drag and steady-but-unimpressive employment gains. Low rates not only spur along housing but also make credit more affordable for buying durable goods and automobiles, purchases of which often accompany newly formed households.

And there isn’t much evidence (yet) to show that the fundamental supply-side problems we previously discussed have been mitigated, as such improvements would partly depend on the housing market’s continued rebound and wider improvements in the economy.

But at least the higher rates have arrived at a time when the housing market had favourable momentum.
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Personal Income and Outlays report for May. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income in April, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an decrease to 345 thousand from 354 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM, the Pending Home Sales Index for May from the NAR. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. This is the last of the regional manufacturing surveys for June. The consensus is for a reading of 4 for this survey, up from 2 in May (Above zero is expansion).