Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Vehicle Sales in June forecast to be at highest level since 2007

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2013 11:46:00 AM

Note: The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Tuesday, July 2nd (next Tuesday). Here are a couple of forecasts:

From Reuters: June auto sales on pace for best showing since December '07: study

June auto sales are on track for their best month since before the 2008-2009 sales plunge ... J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said June sales will show a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 15.7 million vehicles sold, up 7.6 percent from a year ago and the best showing since December 2007.
From TrueCar: June 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up Nearly Eight Percent According to TrueCar; June 2013 SAAR at 15.7M, Highest June SAAR Since 2007
For June 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,380,543 units, up 7.8 percent from June 2012 ... The June 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.7 million new car sales, up from 15.3 million in May 2013 and up from 14.4 million in June 2012.
Two key points: 1) sales growth will slow in 2013, and 2) it appears auto sales were solid in June.

Based on the first five months of 2013, it appears auto sales will increase again this year, but not double digit growth like the last few years.  This suggests auto sales will contribute less to GDP growth this year than in the previous three years.

Light Vehicle Sales
Sales (millions)Annual Change
200516.90.5%
200616.5-2.6%
200716.1-2.5%
200813.2-18.0%
200910.4-21.2%
201011.611.1%
201112.710.2%
201214.413.4%
2013115.25.3%
1Sales rate for first five months of 2013.