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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Q1 GDP Revised down to 1.8% Annualized Real Growth Rate

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2013 08:45:00 AM

GDP was revised down from a 2.4% annualized real growth rate to 1.8% in Q1. From the BEA:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The downward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures, to exports, and to nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports.
Personal consumption expenditure growth was revised down from a 3.4% annualized rate in the 2nd estimate to 2.6% in the 3rd estimate of GDP.

FOMC Projection GDP Tracking Click on graph for larger image.

Last week I posted Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering . Here is an update to the GDP chart.

The current FOMC forecast is for GDP to increase between 2.3% and 2.6% from Q4 2012 to Q4 2013.

The first quarter was below the FOMC projections (red), and it appears the second quarter will also be below the FOMC forecast - if so, then GDP will have to pickup in the 2nd half of 2013 for the Fed to start tapering QE3 purchases in December.