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Thursday, May 30, 2013

Friday: April Personal Income and Outlays, 2013 Social Security Trustees Report

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2013 09:16:00 PM

The 2013 Social Security Trustees Report is expected tomorrow. If it is released, expect some terrible media coverage. Last year, the Columbia Journalism Review issued a Report Card on Social Security Trust Fund Coverage. They gave the media an "F" on headlines, and a "C-" on coverage.

With a few exceptions like, the ABCNews blog, and Mark Miller, who noted on his Reuters blog “[Security Commissioner Michael] Astrue went out of his way to emphasize that the program is far from broke,” Astrue’s warning went unheeded.. Most press coverage ignored Astrue’s cautions and left the impression with the public that Social Security will not be there for them. “There won’t be much money left for you” after 2033, declared a reporter on WBEZ in Chicago.
Obviously any site that says "broke" or "bankrupt", is well, wrong. Unfortunately the coverage is typically more political than data driven. Be prepared to ridicule the coverage (The Columbia article has some great examples from last year).

Friday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the BEA will release the Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in personal income in April, and for no change in personal spending. Also for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. Based on the second estimate of GDP, there will be an upward revision to outlays for Q1.

• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 50.0, up from 49.0 in April.

• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 83.7.

• Expected: The 2013 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds