RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2012 04:48:00 PM
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Lawler: Updated Outlook on November Existing Home Sales: Expect 5.1 Million (SAAR)
From economist Tom Lawler:
"Based on realtor/MLS reports released through today, I have increased my estimate of November existing home sales (as measured by the National Association of Realtors) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million, up 6.5% from October’s pace, and up 15.9% from last November’s pace."
CR Note: The NAR will report November existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, Dec 20th. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 4.85 million.
Based on Lawler's estimates, the NAR will report inventory around 2.05 million units for November, and months-of-supply might be under 5 months. This would be the lowest level of inventory in over 10 years, and the lowest months-of-supply since 2005.
Tom Lawler also sent me some distressed sales data for a few more cities in November.
One of the key changes this year has been the dramatic decline in distressed sales. As the table shows, distressed sales are down everywhere (Chicago is close), foreclosure sales are down everywhere, and short sales are mixed (there is a clear shift from foreclosures to short sales).
The decline in the percent distressed means conventional sales are up even more than total sales.
| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total "Distressed" Share | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-Nov | 11-Nov | 12-Nov | 11-Nov | 12-Nov | 11-Nov | |
| Las Vegas | 41.2% | 26.8% | 10.7% | 46.0% | 51.9% | 72.8% |
| Reno | 41.0% | 36.0% | 9.0% | 35.0% | 50.0% | 71.0% |
| Phoenix | 23.2% | 29.6% | 12.9% | 29.8% | 36.1% | 59.4% |
| Sacramento | 36.1% | 29.8% | 11.5% | 34.3% | 47.6% | 64.1% |
| Minneapolis | 11.2% | 13.8% | 24.6% | 34.8% | 35.8% | 48.7% |
| Mid-Atlantic (MRIS) | 11.9% | 13.7% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 20.6% | 27.9% |
| Orlando | 29.0% | 37.2% | 20.9% | 22.8% | 49.9% | 60.0% |
| California (DQ)* | 26.3% | 24.9% | 16.9% | 32.9% | 43.2% | 57.8% |
| So. California (DQ)* | 26.6% | 25.4% | 15.3% | 31.6% | 41.9% | 57.0% |
| Hampton Roads VA | 28.3% | 33.0% | ||||
| Northeast Florida | 42.2% | 48.0% | ||||
| Chicago | 43.0% | 43.1% | ||||
| Charlotte | 13.3% | 18.3% | ||||
| Atlanta | 30.0% | 46.0% | ||||
| Houston | 15.0% | 20.2% | ||||
| Spokane | 9.2% | 22.4% | ||||
| Memphis* | 24.3% | 31.3% | ||||
| Birmingham AL | 26.5% | 34.5% | ||||
| Metro Detroit | 33.6% | 38.7% | ||||
| *share of existing home sales, based on property records | ||||||
