Wednesday, December 19, 2012

2013 Housing Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2012 06:57:00 PM

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.

Here was a summary of forecasts for 2012. Right now it looks like new home sales will be around 370 thousand this year, and total starts around 770 thousand or so.  Tom Lawler, John Burns and David Crowe (NAHB) were all very close on New Home sales for 2012.  Lawler was the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows several forecasts for 2013. (several analysts were kind enough to share their forecasts - thanks!)

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2012

From NAHB: Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 11/29/2012 (excel)

I haven't worked up a forecast yet for 2013. I've heard there are some lot issues for some of the builders (not improved until 2014), and that might limit supply. In general I expect prices to increase around the rate of inflation, and to see another solid increase in 2013 for new home sales and housing starts.

Housing Forecasts for 2013
New Home Sales (000s)Single Family Starts (000s)Total Starts (000s)House Prices1
Fannie Mae4526599361.6%2
Merrill Lynch466 9762.6%
Barclays424 9884.8%3
Wells Fargo4606809902.6%
Moody's Analytics50082011901.4%
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index
2011 Actual306431609-4.0%
2012 Estimate3705357706.0%