by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2012 11:58:00 AM

Note: The Case-Shiller report to be released next Tuesday is for September (really an average of prices in July, August and September).

Zillow Forecast: September Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3% Increase from One Year Ago

On Tuesday November 27th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for September will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will be up by 3 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will be up 2.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be 0.4 percent for the 20-City Composite, as well as for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are ... are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, the September Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales.

Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close.

CR Note: It looks like house prices will be up about 5% this year based on the Case-Shiller indexes.

		Case Shiller Composite 10		Case Shiller Composite 20
		NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Case Shiller (year ago)	Sept 2011	155.61	152.55	141.96	139.12
Case-Shiller (last month)	Aug 2012	158.62	155.35	145.87	142.7
Zillow Sept Forecast	YoY	2.3%	2.3%	3.0%	3.0%
	MoM	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%
Zillow Forecasts1		159.1	156	146.3	143.3
Current Post Bubble Low		146.5	149.38	134.08	136.65
Date of Post Bubble Low		Mar-12	Jan-12	Mar-12	Feb-12
Above Post Bubble Low		8.6%	4.4%	9.1%	4.9%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts