Sunday, October 14, 2012

Monday: Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg Survey

by Bill McBride on 10/14/2012 09:25:00 PM

This is something I wrote about last year, from the WSJ: Buyers Back After Foreclosure

Millions of families lost their homes to foreclosure after the housing crash hit six years ago. Now, some of those families are back in the housing market. Call them the "boomerang" buyers.
On a recent conference call with investors, Stuart Miller, chief executive of Miami-based home builder Lennar Corp., said the company was seeing more people "coming out of the penalty box." At Cornerstone Communities, a San Diego home builder, roughly 20 of the 110 closings they have had this year came from buyers who have been through a foreclosure or short sale, estimates Ure Kretowicz, the company's chief executive.
Using the three-year benchmark it takes to get an FHA-guaranteed loan, in this year's second quarter there were 729,000 households that were foreclosed upon during the bust that are now eligible to apply for an FHA mortgage, up from 285,000 in the second quarter of 2011, according to an analysis of foreclosure data by Moody's Analytics. The company projects that number will grow to 1.5 million by the first quarter of 2014.
They're back!

On Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for September will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.7% in September, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.5%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for October will be released. The consensus is for a reading of minus 3, up from minus 10.4 in September (below zero is contraction).

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales report for August (Business inventories) will be released. The consensus is for 0.5% increase in inventories.

Note: Also on Monday, several regional Fed presidents will speak including NY Fed president William Dudley in the morning.

The Asian markets are mixed tonight, with the Hang Seng up slightly, and the Nikkei down 0.2%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 3, and the DOW futures are down 22.

Oil prices are down with WTI futures down to $91.86 and Brent down at $113.80 per barrel.

Summary for Week Ending Oct 12th
Schedule for Week of Oct 14th
Zillow Housing Forum and The Bearish View

Five more questions this week for the October economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).