by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2012 08:30:00 AM
Monday, July 16, 2012
Retail Sales decline 0.5% in June
On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.5% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8% from June 2011. From the Census Bureau report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $401.5 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above June 2011.Ex-autos, retail sales declined 0.4% in June.
![Retail Sales](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKkNtRagDPZgbX31dkchJMUnnlGeKA2WqmlBfHSjbKSKXefKF6d9rloMTtceoNKmD4d0M1RM4xrPp4JBJsaglHHdwI5qsrC2eBdgvn1LjH4Xh-8VI5rabgNhsWXswaCbjGVHgO/s320/RetailJune2012.jpg)
Sales for May were unchanged at a 0.2% decrease.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales are up 21.2% from the bottom, and now 6.0% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
![Retail Sales since 2006](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZdE_6AE-l9-i7wymAleJ-seroyB_6gh2meAQM6JLDEtM978dd7VxEpLCzW0ZAC4NPaSlFNwLcuZ7wQFxP6XrAbVW38FI-ui_EpyoGZwk5BttvtosDWoq9xiB4Jk_SPOrK-rhl/s320/RetailShortJune2012.jpg)
The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 4.2% on a YoY basis (3.8% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.3% in June.
![Year-over-year change in Retail Sales](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo0XwyiGQRy8rYj-oU0bhwEgltgZOSuDxUQVYajJKOqpLLq13jKPc51N5ZSFS5h0arWOlWcPnKjlTufPel3iq1aWjxI3d9ie4UjnWQt5FD3boepifPFoHFh8ejMAY1_0Fa15et/s320/RetailYoYJune2012.jpg)
Some of the decrease was related to the decline in gasoline prices, but this is another indicator of a weak June.