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Monday, July 16, 2012

Downward Revisions: Q2 GDP Tracking around 1.1%

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2012 01:35:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Today’s weak retail sales report leaves Q2 GDP tracking a meager 1.1%. We expect the economy to remain weak through the rest of the year with growth of only 1.3% in Q3 and 1.0% in Q4. This translates to GDP growth of only 1.3% Q4/Q4, significantly below the Fed’s forecast of 1.9-2.4%.
Via Ezra Klein:
Macro advisers: Q2 GDP tracking 1%
Nouriel Roubini:
US Q2 GDP growth looks like 1.2% at best ... Q3 growth could be well below 1% given June sales report and unintended inventory build up. US at stall speed
Goldman has lowered their forecast to 1.1% for Q2.