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Friday, March 23, 2012

Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller House Price index in January

by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2012 02:35:00 PM

Zillow Forecast: January Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.7% Decline from One Year Ago

On Tuesday, March 27th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for January will be released. Zillow predicts that both the 20-City and the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 3.7 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from December to January will be zero percent and -0.1 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close, and I expect Case-Shiller will report house prices at a new post-bubble low in January for the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) indexes.

The seasonally adjusted indexes will probably be close to the level reported in December.

One of the keys this year will be to watch the year-over-year change in the various house price indexes. The composite 10 and 20 indexes declined 3.9% and 4.0% respectively in December, after declining 3.8% in November. Zillow is forecasting a slightly smaller year-over-year decline in January.

Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
January 2011154.36155.43140.78141.98
Case-Shiller
(last month)
December 2011149.89149.76136.71136.63
Zillow January ForecastYoY-3.7%-3.7%-3.7%-3.7%
MoM-0.8%-0.1%-0.8%0.0%
Zillow Forecasts1148.7149.6135.6136.7
Post Bubble Lows149.89149.76136.71136.63
Date of LowDecember 2011December 2011December 2011December 2011
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts