Saturday, March 24, 2012

Schedule for Week of March 25th

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2012 01:05:00 PM

Earlier:
Summary for Week ending March 23rd

The key reports this week are the January Case-Shiller house price index, to be released on Tuesday, the February Durable Goods report on Wednesday, the February Personal Income and Outlays report on Friday, and the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday.

There are several regional manufacturing surveys that will also be released this week. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will discuss the labor market on Monday and deliver two more college lectures on Tuesday and Thursday. The Thursday lecture will discuss current policy.

----- Monday, Mar 26th -----

8:00 AM ET: Speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Recent Developments in the Labor Market", At the National Association for Business Economics Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia

8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February). This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for February. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index. Housing economist Tom Lawler (based on limited data) thinks there could be a "sizable increase" in this index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for March. The consensus is for 15.5 for the general business activity index, down from 17.8 in February.

----- Tuesday, Mar 27th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices 9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January. Although this is the January report, it is really a 3 month average of November, December and January.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 3.8% decrease year-over-year in prices (NSA) in January. I expect these indexes to be at new post-bubble lows, not seasonally adjusted. The CoreLogic index declined 1.0% in January (NSA).

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for March. The consensus is for a decrease to 70.4 from 70.8 last month.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. The consensus is for a decrease to 18 for this survey from 20 in February (above zero is expansion).

12:45 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's lecture series to college students, "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis" Part 3 of 4

----- Wednesday, Mar 28th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.9% increase in durable goods orders.

----- Thursday, Mar 29th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 350,000 from 348,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Q4 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q4 (same as second estimate).

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for March. The index was at 13 in February (above zero is expansion). This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for March, and the surveys released earlier in the month indicated stronger expansion in March than February.

12:45 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's lecture series to college students, "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis" Part 4 of 4

----- Friday, Mar 30th -----

Personal Consumption Expenditures 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for February.

This graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through January (2005 dollars). Real PCE increased less than 0.1% in January and has essentially been flat since October.

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income in February, and a 0.5% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a decrease to 63.0, down from 64.0 in February.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for March). The consensus is for a slight increase to 74.9 up from the preliminary reading of 74.3.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for February 2012