Wednesday, March 07, 2012

CoreLogic: House Price Index declined 1.0% in January to new post-bubble low

by Bill McBride on 3/07/2012 08:56:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The Case-Shiller index released last week was for December. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average of the last three months and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® January Home Price Index Shows Sixth Consecutive Monthly Decline

[CoreLogic January Home Price Index (HPI®) report] shows national home prices, including distressed sales, declined on a year-over-year basis by 3.1 percent in January 2012 and by 1.0 percent compared to December 2011, the sixth consecutive monthly decline.

Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.9 percent in January 2012 compared to January 2011, but that same metric posted a month-over-month gain, rising 0.7 percent in January. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“Although home price declines are slowly improving and not far from the bottom, home prices are down to nearly the same levels as 10 years ago,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was down 1.0% in January, and is down 3.1% over the last year.

The index is off 34% from the peak - and is now at a new post-bubble low.

CoreLogic YoY House Price IndexThe second graph is from CoreLogic. As Mark Fleming noted, the year-over-year declines are getting smaller.

Some of this decline was seasonal (the CoreLogic index is NSA) and month-to-month price changes will probably remain negative through March 2012. Last year prices fell about 2.5% from January 2011 to March 2011, and there will probably be a similar decline this year.