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Saturday, March 10, 2012

Schedule for Week of March 11th

by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2012 01:01:00 PM

Summary for Week ending March 9th

Retail sales for February is the key report this week. For manufacturing, the March NY Fed (Empire state) and Philly Fed surveys will be released on Thursday, and the February Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report will be released on Friday.

On prices, the February Producer Price index (PPI) will be released Thursday, and CPI will be released on Friday. Also - there is a one day FOMC meeting on Tuesday.

----- Monday, Mar 12th -----

No Releases Scheduled.

----- Tuesday, Mar 13th -----

Small Business Optimism Index7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased slightly to 93.9 in January from 93.8 in December. This was the fifth increase in a row after declining for six consecutive months. The consensus is for an increase to 95.0 in February.

Retail Sales 8:30 AM: Retail Sales for February.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail Retail sales are up 20.7% from the bottom, and now 6.1% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The consensus is for retail sales to increase 1.2% in February, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.8%.

9:00 AM: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ This is the diesel fuel index for February (a measure of transportation).

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for January (Business inventories). The consensus is for 0.6% increase in inventories.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in December, and the number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and are up about 15% year-over-year compared to December 2010.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for January 2012

2:15 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No changes are expected to interest rates.

----- Wednesday, Mar 14th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.

8:30 AM: Import and Export Prices for February. The consensus is a for a 0.6% increase in import prices.

9:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks, "Community Banking", At the Independent Community Bankers of America National Convention and Techworld, Nashville, Tennessee. No news is expected.

----- Thursday, Mar 15th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 355,000 from 362,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for February. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of 17.5, down from 19.5 in February (above zero is expansion).

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of 11, up from 10.2 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

----- Friday, Mar 16th -----

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for February. The consensus is a 0.5% increase in prices. The consensus for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

Industrial Production9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February.

This shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production in February, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.8% (from 78.5%).

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (perliminary for March). The consensus is for a slight increase to 75.6 up from the February reading of 75.3.