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Saturday, February 11, 2012

Schedule for Week of February 12th

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2012 01:36:00 PM

Summary for Week ending February 10th

The key reports this week are January retail sales on Tuesday, and January housing starts on Thursday. The NAHB builder confidence report for February will be released on Wednesday.

For manufacturing, the February NY Fed (Empire state) and Philly Fed surveys, and the January Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report will be released this week.

On prices, the January Producer Price index (PPI) will be released Thursday, and CPI will be released on Friday.

----- Monday, Feb 13th-----

No economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, Feb 14th -----

Small Business Optimism Index7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 93.8 in December from 92.0 in November. That was the fourth increase in a row after declining for six consecutive months.  The consensus is for an increase to 95.0.

Retail Sales 8:30 AM: Retail Sales for January.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 20.4% from the bottom, and now 5.9% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.7% in January, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.5%.

9:00 AM: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ This is the diesel fuel index for January (a measure of transportation).

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for December (Business inventories). The consensus is for 0.4% increase in inventories.

----- Wednesday, Feb 15th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index was especially weak last year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.

8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of +14.1, up from +13.5 in January (above zero is expansion).

Industrial Production9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January.

This shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in December to 95.3, and previous months were revised up slightly.

The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in Industrial Production in December, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.6% (from 78.1%).

10:00 AM: The February NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 26, up slightly from 25 in January. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of January 24-25, 2010.

----- Thursday, Feb 16th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 365,000 from 358,000 last week.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for January.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that total housing starts have been increasing a little lately, but have mostly moved sideways for about two years and a half years. Multi-family starts increased in 2011 - although from a very low level. Single family starts appear to be increasing lately, but are still mostly "moving sideways".

The consensus is for an increase in total housing starts to 670,000 (SAAR) from 657,000 (SAAR) in December.

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in producer prices (0.1% increase in core).

9:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks: "Community Banking" At the FDIC Conference on the Future of Community Banking, Arlington, Virginia

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 8.4, up from 7.3 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 4th Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS).

MBA Delinquency by PeriodThis graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due in Q3. Based on other data, the delinquency rate probably was unchanged or only declined slightly in Q4.

However the key problem is the large number of seriously delinquent loans (90+ days and in the foreclosure process). With the mortgage servicer settlement, the delinquency rate will probably start falling faster by mid-2012 (a combination of more modifications and more foreclosures).

----- Friday, Feb 17th -----

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for January. The consensus is a 0.3% increase in prices. The consensus for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for January. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in this index.