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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

FNC House Prices, Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller

by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2012 04:52:00 PM

Note: The Case-Shiller House Price index for December will be released Tuesday, Feb 28th. CoreLogic has already reported that prices declined 1.4% in December (NSA, including foreclosures). It appears that the Case-Shiller indexes (both SA and NSA) were at new post-bubble lows in December.

• Today from FNC: December Residential Property Values Decline 0.7%

Based on the latest data on non-distressed home sales (existing and new homes) through December, FNC’s national RPI shows that single-family home prices fell in December to a seasonally unadjusted rate of 0.7%. ... As a gauge of underlying home value, the RPI excludes sales of foreclosed homes, which are frequently sold with large price discounts reflecting poor property conditions.
All three RPI composites (the National, 30-MSA, and 10-MSA indices) show month-to-month declines in December, ranging from -0.7% at the national level to -1.1% in the nation’s top 10 housing markets.

The indices’ year-to-year trends generally show the pace of price declines slowing. The national RPI indicates that December home prices declined at a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.5%, the smallest year-to-year declines since May 2010 when home prices rebounded under the federal homebuyer tax credits program. The year-to-year declines at the nation’s top housing markets, as indicated by the 30- and 10-MSA composites, have also decelerated to their slowest pace.
The FNC index tables for four composite indexes and 30 cities are here.

• Zillow Forecast: Zillow Forecast: December Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 4.0% Decline from One Year Ago
Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 4.0 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 3.9 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from November to December will be -0.5 percent and -0.6 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
Case-Shiller will probably report house prices were at a new post-bubble lows in December for both the seasonally adjusted (SA) index and the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.

 Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
Case Shiller (actual)December 2010156.04155.91142.39142.32
 November 2011151.9150.89138.49137.52
Zillow December ForecastYoY-3.9%-3.9%-4.0%-4.0%
Zillow Forecasts1150149.9136.7136.7
Post Bubble Lows150.44150.89137.64137.52
Date of LowApril 2009November 2011 March 2011November 2011
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts