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Saturday, November 26, 2011

Schedule for Week of Nov 27th

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2011 01:31:00 PM

Summary for Week Ending Nov 25th

The key report this week will be the employment situation report for November on Friday. Other key reports include the November ISM manufacturing index on Thursday, auto sales also on Thursday, and two important housing reports to be released early in the week: New Home sales on Monday and Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.

----- Monday, Nov 28th -----

New Home Sales and Recessions10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

The consensus is for a slight decrease in sales to 310 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in October from 313 thousand in September.

10:00 AM: NY Fed Q3 Report on Household Debt and Credit

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for November. The index showed some expansion in October with a reading of 4.1. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November, and the results have been mixed - but generally better than in October.

----- Tuesday, Nov 29th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September. Although this is the September report, it is really a 3 month average of July, August and September.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 3.0% year-over-year decrease in prices in September, or mostly flat to slightly down from August. The CoreLogic index showed a 1.1% decrease in September (NSA).

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November. The consensus is for an increase to 44.2 from 39.8 last month.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is not as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic). However the quarterly FHFA expanded series house price index makes use of "additional sales price information from external data sources" and might be followed more closely in the future.

11:30 AM: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, Calif. "The Global Economic Recovery".

----- Wednesday, Nov 30th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been especially weak since early August, although this doesn't include cash buyers.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 130,000 payroll jobs added in November, up from the 110,000 reported in October.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. The consensus is for a slight increase to 58.5 from 58.4 in October.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 1.2% increase in the index.

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts

----- Thursday, Dec 1st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a slight decrease to 390,000 from 393,000 last week. The 4-week average has recently declined to below 400,000.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for a slight increase to 51.7 from 50.8 in October.

All day: Light vehicle sales for November. Light vehicle sales are expected to increase to 13.4 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 13.2 million in October.

----- Friday, Dec 2nd -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.

Payroll Jobs per Month The consensus is for an increase of 112,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, up from the 80,000 jobs added in October.

This graph shows the net payroll jobs per month (excluding temporary Census jobs) since the beginning of the recession. The consensus forecast for November is in blue.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain at 9.0% in November.

Percent Job Losses During RecessionsThis second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through October.

Through the first ten months of 2011, the economy has added 1.256 million total non-farm jobs or just 125 thousand per month. This is a better pace of payroll job creation than last year, but the economy still has 6.47 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession. The economy has added 1.529 million private sector jobs this year, or about 153 thousand per month.