Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Real House Prices using Fed Reserve Stress Test Scenario

by Bill McBride on 11/23/2011 06:55:00 PM

Yesterday the Federal Reserve outlined the annual bank supervisory stress tests. The Fed included a stress test scenario for house prices and inflation, so we can calculate the impact on real house prices.

The stress test scenario is outlined here. The stress tests assume the unemployment rate will rise to 13% in 2013, that the Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index will decline by more than 50% from the current level. The scenario also assumes that nominal house prices will fall another 20%+.

Note: The Federal Reserve uses the CoreLogic House Price Index (Blue).

Stress TestsClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real house prices through August 2011 (September for CoreLogic), and the Federal Reserves stress test scenario (blue after Q3 2011).

This scenario would take real house prices back to about mid-1984 prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation).