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Monday, October 03, 2011

Unofficial Problem Bank List Quarterly Transition Matrix

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2011 10:28:00 PM

A busy day ... here are the earlier posts:
ISM Manufacturing index increases in September
Construction Spending increased in August
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 13.1 million SAAR in September
LPS: Foreclosure Starts increased in August, Seriously Delinquent Mortgage Loans fall to 2008 levels

CR Note: Surferdude808 started compiling the unofficial problem bank list over two years ago. Thanks!

From surferdude808:

With the third quarter of 2011 coming to an end this past Friday, it is time to update the Unofficial Problem Bank List transition matrix. The list debuted on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions with assets of $276.3 billion (see table below). Over the past 25 months, about 54 percent or 210 institutions have been removed from the original list with 129 from failure, 62 from action termination, and 19 from unassisted merger. More than 33 percent of the 389 institutions on the original list have failed, which is substantially higher than the 12 percent figure usually cited by the media as the failure rate for institutions on the FDIC Problem Bank List.

Since the publication of the original list, another 1,052 institutions have been added. However, only 807 of those 1,052 additions remain on the current list as 245 institutions have been removed in the interim. Of the 245 inter-period removals, 155 were from failure, 55 were from an unassisted merger, 33 from action termination, and two from voluntary liquidation.

In total, 1,441 institutions have made an appearance on the Unofficial Problem Bank List and 284 or 19.7 percent have failed. Of the 455 total removals, the primary way of exit from the list is failure at 284 or nearly 63 percent. Only 95 or around 21 percent have been able to rehabilitate themselves to see their respective action terminated. Alternatively, another 74 or 16 percent found merger partners most likely to avoid failure. Total assets that have appeared on the list amount to $777.8 billion and $272.4 billion have been removed due to failure. The average asset size of removals from failure is $959 million.
Unofficial Problem Bank List
Change Summary
 Number of InstitutionsAssets ($Thousands)
Start (8/7/2009) 389 276,313,429
 
Subtractions   
 Action Terminated62 (14,365,497)
 Unassisted Merger19 (3,290,170)
 Voluntary Liquidation0 -
 Failures129 (174,696,774)
 Asset Change  (19,508,778)
 
Still on List at 9/30/2011 179 64,452,210
 
Additions 986 340,680,808
 
End (9/30/2011) 1001 405,133,018
 
Intraperiod Deletions1   
 Action Terminated33 23,221,613
 Unassisted Merger55 39,058,992
 Voluntary Liquidation2 833,567
 Failures155 97,669,948
 Total245 160,784,120
1Institutions not on 8/7/2009 or 9/30/2011 list but appeared on a list between these dates.