by Bill McBride on 10/03/2011 03:59:00 PM
Monday, October 03, 2011
Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 13.1 million SAAR in September. That is up 11.2% from September 2010, and up 8.3% from the sales rate last month (12.1 million SAAR in Aug 2011).
This was well above the consensus forecast of 12.6 million SAAR.
This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for September (red, light vehicle sales of 13.1 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This was close to the sales rate in April and close to the high for the year.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
This shows the huge collapse in sales in the 2007 recession. This also shows the impact of the tsunami and supply chain issues on sales, especially in May and June.
Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.
Growth in auto sales should make a positive contribution to Q3 GDP as sales bounced back from the May and June lows. Sales in Q3 have averaged 12.5 million SAAR, above the 12.1 million SAAR average in Q2.
• ISM Manufacturing index increases in September
• Construction Spending increased in August