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Saturday, October 29, 2011

Schedule for Week of Oct 30th

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2011 12:49:00 PM

Summary for Week ending Oct 28th

The key report this week will be the employment situation report for October on Friday. Also the FOMC statement and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's press briefing on Wednesday, will be closely watched.

Other key reports include the October ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, auto sales also on Tuesday, and the ISM non-manufacturing index on Thursday.

----- Monday, Oct 31st -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a decrease to 58.0, down from the strong 60.4 in September.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus is for contraction of -5.0 from expansion of 5.9 in September. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for October, and the results have been mixed - but generally better than for September.

----- Tuesday, Nov 1st -----

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for a slight increase to 52.0 from 51.6 in September.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October. Light vehicle sales are expected to increase to 13.2 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 13.1 million in September.

Vehicle SalesThis graph shows the September estimate for light vehicle sales of 13.4 million SAAR.

Edmunds is forecasting 13.4 million:
An estimated 1,033,257 new cars will be sold in October, for a projected Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 13.4 million units, forecasts ... This sales pace would mark the highest monthly SAAR since August 2009, when sales were inflated by the Cash for Clunkers program.
----- Wednesday, Nov 2nd -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been especially weak since early August, although this doesn't include cash buyers.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 100,000 payroll jobs added in October, up from the 91,000 reported in September.

10:00 AM: Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. As a reminder: Be careful with the Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. Unfortunately the report is based on a fairly small sample, and does not track the decennial Census data.

12:30PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No changes are expected to interest rates. The Fed will release its quarterly economic forecasts prior to the press briefing. The Fed growth forecasts are expected to be revised down once again. I'll post a preview on Sunday.

2:15 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press briefing following FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, Nov 3rd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a slight decrease to 400,000 from 402,000 last week. The 4-week average has declined recently, but is still above 400,000.

10:00 AM ET: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in orders.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for a no change at 53.0 in October, the same as in September. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

----- Friday, Nov 4th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.

Payroll Jobs per Month The consensus is for an increase of 90,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October, down from the 103,000 jobs added in September. However the September report was boosted by returning Verizon workers - excluding those workers, this would be an improvement over September, but still a very weak jobs report.

This graph shows the net payroll jobs per month (excluding temporary Census jobs) since the beginning of the recession. The consensus forecast for October is in blue.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain at 9.1% in October.

This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through September.

Through the first nine months of 2011, the economy has added 1.074 million total non-farm jobs or just 119 thousand per month. This is a better pace of payroll job creation than last year, but the economy still has 6.6 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession. The economy has added 1.341 million private sector jobs this year, or about 149 thousand per month.

There are a total of 13.992 million Americans unemployed and 6.24 million have been unemployed for more than 6 months. Very grim.