In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Existing Home Sales in September: 4.91 million SAAR, 8.5 months of supply

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2011 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Off in September but Higher Than a Year Ago

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 3.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.91 million in September from an upwardly revised 5.06 million in August, but are 11.3 percent above the 4.41 million unit pace in September 2010.
Total housing inventory at the end of September declined 2.0 percent to 3.48 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with an 8.4-month supply in August.
Existing Home Sales Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in September 2011 (4.91 million SAAR) were 3.0% lower than last month, and were 11.3% above the September 2010 rate.

Existing Home InventoryThe second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.48 million in September from 3.55 million in August.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 13.0% year-over-year in September from September 2010. This is the eight consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory.

Months of supply increased to 8.5 months in September, up from 8.4 months in August. This is much higher than normal. These sales numbers were close to the consensus.

I'll have more soon ...