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Saturday, September 24, 2011

Schedule for Week of Sept 25th

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2011 02:11:00 PM

Summary for Week Ending Sept 23rd

There are two key housing reports to be released early in the week: New Home sales on Monday, and Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.

Other key releases include the third estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday, and August Personal Income and Outlays on Friday. Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and three more regional Fed manufacturing surveys and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index.

----- Monday, Sept 26th -----

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August). This is a composite index of other data.

9:15 AM: Speech, Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin, "Monetary Policy and Job Creation" At the University of Maryland Smith School of Business Distinguished Speaker Series, Washington, D.C.

New Home Sales and Recessions10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

The consensus is for a slight decrease in sales to 295 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in August from 298 thousand in July. Given that new home sales are reported when contracts are signed - and August was an especially weak month due to the debt ceiling debate - sales might fall even further.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for September. The Texas production index increased 1.1 in August.

----- Tuesday, Sept 27th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices 9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July. Although this is the July report, it is really a 3 month average of May, June and July.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for prices to increase 0.1% in July. The CoreLogic index showed a 0.8% increase in July (NSA). Based on other price indexes, the Case-Shiller index will probably increase a little more than the consensus.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for September. The consensus is for an increase to 46.2 from 44.5 last month.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September. The consensus is for the index to be at -9, up slightly from -10 in August (below zero is contraction).

----- Wednesday, Sept 28th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been especially weak over the last month.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in durable goods orders after increasing 4.0% in July.

5:00 PM: Speech, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Lessons from Emerging Market Economies on the Sources of Sustained Growth", At the Cleveland Clinic Ideas for Tomorrow Speaker Series, Cleveland, Ohio

----- Thursday, Sept 29th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 420,000 from 423,000 last week.

GDP Growth Rate 8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate for Q2 GDP from the BEA.

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The first estimate was for 1.3% real annualized growth in Q2. Growth was revised down to 1.0% in the 2nd estimate. The consensus is for an upward revision to 1.2% in Q2.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is for a 2% decrease in the index.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for September. The index was at 3 in August (slight expansion).

----- Friday, Sept 30th -----

Personal Consumption Expenditures8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for July. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June (2005 dollars).

PCE increased 0.8 in July, and real PCE increased 0.5% as the price index for PCE increased 0.4 percent in July.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in personal income in August, and a 0.2% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a decrease to 55.4, down from 56.5 in August.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for September). The consensus is for no change from the preliminary reading of 57.8.