Saturday, August 20, 2011

Schedule for Week of Aug 21st

by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2011 02:31:00 PM

Summary for Week ending August 19th (with plenty of graphs)

The most anticipated event this coming week is Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

The key economic releases this week are July New Home Sales on Tuesday and the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday. Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys. On Monday, the MBA will release the Q2 National Delinquency Survey.

----- Monday, Aug 22nd -----

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July). This is a composite index of other data.

MBA Delinquency by Period10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 2nd Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS)

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.

The MBA reported 8.32% of mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of Q1, seasonally adjusted, and another 4.52% were in the foreclosure process (total of 12.84%). The deliquency rate probably decreased in Q2, but the in-foreclosure rate probably increased.

Expected: The Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (commercial real estate price index) for June.

----- Tuesday, Aug 23rd -----

New Home Sales and Recessions10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963.

The dashed line is the June sales rate of 312 thousand (SAAR).

The consensus is for a slight increase to 313 thousand SAAR in July.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for the index to be at minus 7, down from minus 1 in July. (below zero is contraction).

----- Wednesday, Aug 24th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months, although refinance activity probably increased sharply last week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders after decreasing 2.1% in June.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

----- Thursday, Aug 25th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 415,000 from 408,000 last week.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. The index was at 3 in July.

----- Friday, Aug 26th -----

GDP Growth Rate8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q2 GDP from the BEA.

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The first estimate was for 1.3% annualized growth in Q2. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.1% annualized real GDP growth.

9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment final for August. The consensus is for a slight increase to 56.0 from the preliminary August reading of 54.9.

10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, "Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy"