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Saturday, July 16, 2011

Schedule for Week of July 17th

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2011 06:02:00 PM

Summary for Week Ending July 15th

Three key housing reports will be released this week: July homebuilder confidence on Monday, June housing starts on Tuesday, and June existing home sales on Wednesday.

The Philly Fed manufacturing survey will be released on Thursday. Also the speech by NY Fed VP Brian Sack on Wednesday might be interesting.

----- Monday, July 18th -----

10 AM ET: The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 14, up slightly from 13 in June. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This index has been below 25 for four years.

----- Tuesday, July 19th -----

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for June. After collapsing following the housing bubble, housing starts have mostly been moving sideways for over two years - with slight ups and downs due to the home buyer tax credit.

Total housing starts were at 560 thousand (SAAR) in May, up 3.5% from the revised April rate of 541 thousand. Single-family starts increased 3.7% to 419 thousand in May.

The consensus is for an increase to 575,000 (SAAR) in June.

----- Wednesday, July 20th -----

AIA Architecture Billing IndexEarly: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index decreased in May to 47.2 from 47.6 in April. Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in billings.

This index usually leads investment in non-residential structures (hotels, malls, office) by 9 to 12 months.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through summer (not counting all cash purchases).

Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.9 million at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in June, up from 4.81 million SAAR in May.

Note: the NAR is working on benchmarking existing home sales for previous years with other industry data (expectations are for large downward revisions). Perhaps the NAR will provide an update on when these revisions will be released.

Expected: The Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (commercial real estate price index) for May.

6:15 PM: NY Fed Vice President Brian Sack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

----- Thursday, July 21st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of claims has been elevated for the last couple of months. The consensus is for an increase to 415,000 from 405,000 last week.

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 5.0 (above zero indicates expansion), up from -7.7 last month.

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for June. The consensus is for a flat reading for this index.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for May 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on the Dodd-Frank Act, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate.

----- Friday, July 22nd -----

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment for June 2011