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Sunday, July 17, 2011

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2011 08:23:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Based on what data I've seen so far, I estimate that existing home sales, as estimated by the NAR, ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.72 million in June, down from 4.81 million in May. That is below consensus, but is what the incoming data suggest [CR note: consensus is 4.9 million SAAR]. It's actually not shockingly inconsistent with the pending sales data, which showed a huge drop in April and then an increase in May, since the lag from pending to closed is on average over a month -- though it appears to vary a boatload across various markets.

Trying to gauge the NAR's inventory measure from actual listings data has been tricky, but as best as I can tell from the relationship between actual listings and the NAR's number, the NAR will probably report a decline in listings on the month of about 1 to 1.5%.

Pending sales in June appear to have increased slightly from May.

CR Notes: The NAR reported existing home sales at a 4.81 million (SAAR) in May, inventory of 3.72 million units, and 9.3 months of supply.

Based on Tom Lawler's estimate, this will be the lowest level of inventory in June since 2005. And sales will decline about 10% YoY from June 2010 - the last month that was boosted by the homebuyer tax credit. Months of supply would increase slightly from May.

No official word yet on when the NAR will release their benchmark revision (expected later this summer - and expected to show significant downward revisions to sales and inventory for the last several years).

Summary for Week Ending July 15th
Schedule for Week of July 17th