Saturday, May 28, 2011

Schedule for Week of May 29th

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2011 05:25:00 PM

Earlier ...
Summary for Week Ending May 27th

There will probably be a series of weak economic reports this week, including Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday, May vehicle sales also on Wednesday, and the May employment report on Friday.

----- Monday, May 30th -----

Memorial Day: All US markets will be closed in observance of the Memorial Day holiday.

----- Tuesday, May 31st -----

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for March. Although this is the March report, it is really a 3 month average of January, February and March.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

House prices have continued to decline, and the Composite 20 index will probably be at post-bubble low in March. The consensus is for prices to decline about 0.2% in March; the ninth straight month of house price declines.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May. The consensus is for a sharp decrease to 62.3, down from 67.6 in April.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for May. The consensus is for a slight increase to 66.5 from 65.4 last month due to slightly lower gasoline prices.

----- Wednesday, June 1st -----

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for +178,000 payroll jobs in May, about the same as the 179,000 reported in April.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through mid-year (not counting all cash purchases).

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for a decrease to 57.5 from 60.4 in April. Based on the regional manufacturing surveys, I expect the ISM index to be in the mid-50s.

All day: Light vehicle sales for May. Light vehicle sales are expected to decrease to 12.8 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 13.1 million in April.

Vehicle SalesThis graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the April sales rate.

Edmunds is forecasting: "Edmunds.com analysts predict that May’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 12.2 million, down from 13.2 million in April 2011."

The supply chain disruption is now impacting sales and I think the consensus is too high.

----- Thursday, June 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of claims increased over the last month. The consensus is for a decrease to 420,000 from 424,000 last week.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for April. The consensus is for a 0.9% decrease in orders.

----- Friday, June 3rd -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for May.

Payroll Jobs per Month The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May, down from the 244,000 jobs added in April.

This graph shows the net payroll jobs per month (excluding temporary Census jobs) since the beginning of the recession. The estimate for May is in blue.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 8.9% in May (from 9.0% in April).

Percent Job Losses During RecessionsThe second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through April - aligned at maximum job losses.

This shows the severe job losses during the recent recession - there are currently 6.96 million fewer jobs in the U.S. than when the recession started in 2007.

Once again I think the consensus is too high.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for a slight increase to 54.0 in May.

Best wishes to All!