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Sunday, August 29, 2010

Schedule for Week of August 29th

by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2010 12:55:00 PM

This will be another busy week - the August employment report on Friday is the key economic release this week.

The previous post is the summary of last week.

----- Monday Aug 30th -----

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for July 2010. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in both income and spending (compared to June). The core PCE Price Index is expected to increase 0.1%.

10:30 AM Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus is for a decrease in the index to flat (neither expanding or contracting) from 5 last month. These regional surveys are important now since it appears manufacturing is slowing (or contracting like the Philly Fed survey showed).

----- Tuesday Aug 31st -----

9:00 AM: S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index for June (3 month average). The consensus is for prices to be mostly flat in the June report.

9:45 AM Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August. The consensus is for a decline to 56.0 from 62.3 in July.

10:00 AM Consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for August. The consensus is for a slight increase to 51.0 from 50.4.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of August 10, 2010

----- Wednesday Sept 1st -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been fairly flat over the last couple of months - suggesting reported existing home sales in August will not be much stronger than in July.

8:15 AM: ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for +20,000 payroll jobs in August, down from +42,000 in July.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The regional Fed reports suggest a decline in the ISM manufacturing index. The consensus is for a decline to 53.0 from 55.5 in July.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.6% decline in spending.

4:00 PM (approx): Light Vehicle Sales for August. The various manufacturers will report August sales in the morning. Usually around 4 PM I post an estimate of SAAR for the month. The consensus is for sales of 11.6 million, about the same as in July.

NOTE: There is a conference on Wednesday and Thursday in Washington, D.C. at the Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve REO and Vacant Properties Summit

----- Thursday Sept 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for a slight decrease to 470K from 473K last week. The increase in weekly claims is very concerning and the 4-week average is at the highest level since last November.

8:30 AM: Nonfarm Productivity for Q2 (Final)

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for July.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for July. The consensus is for a slight increase (about 1.5%) in contracts signed. This index declined 2.6% in June (after collapsing in May). It usually takes 45 to 60 days to close, so this will provide an early indication of closings in September.

----- Friday Sept 3rd -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for about a loss of 90,000 payroll jobs, with 116,000 fewer Census jobs, or about +26,000 ex-Census increase in payrolls. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 9.6% from 9.5% in July. For a preview, see: Will the unemployment rate spike higher?

10:00 AM: ISM Non-manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for a decrease in the service index to 53.0 from 54.3 in July.

After 4:00 PM: The FDIC will probably have another busy Friday afternoon ...

----- Likely, but not scheduled -----

Expected early in the week: Q2 Quarterly Banking Profile from the FDIC.

Expected on Thursday: August Personal Bankruptcy Filings