by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2010 09:00:00 AM
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Case-Shiller House Prices "Weakening"
IMPORTANT: These graphs are Seasonally Adjusted (SA). S&P has cautioned that the seasonal adjustment is probably being distorted by irregular factors. These distortions could include distressed sales and the various government programs.
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March (actually a 3 month average), and the Q1 2010 National Index.
The monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities).
From S&P: The First Quarter of 2010 Indicates Some Weakening in Home Prices
Data through March 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... show that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2% in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above its year-earlier level. In March, 13 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down although the two composites and 10 MSAs showed year-over-year gains.
Housing prices rebounded from crisis lows, but recently have seen renewed weakness as tax incentives are ending and foreclosures are climbing.
![Case-Shiller House Prices Indices](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyb6Me3ocvUE8BnVmCa5WfYi7eovg3WfxOjygF1kxP70zHPXvIUAph02yg2TQomQ67Ll83T_fDHoe5S9361msDMLKwOjqdH2bWjhCOGiY_a37MwTbV2-5jqTfREyvNoop5iyCp/s320/CaseShillerMarch2010.jpg)
The first graph shows the nominal not seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 29.8% from the peak, and up slightly in March (SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 29.3% from the peak, and down slightly in March (SA).
![Case-Shiller House Prices Indices](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgleO-_iSOQ7GirvrfnDlegTKFNNZRH0_w85YE93lugRXAZQmlZyN8h6A3KXdHtiOTI496iekwAmoRvrdpXo_qiaTNhX-0Ghgf4t4QPNHoWR2vYX6knXAi7t9M4WM-bab8H2WJ3/s320/CaseShillerMarchYoY.jpg)
The Composite 10 is up 3.2% compared to March 2009.
The Composite 20 is up 2.4% compared to March 2009.
This is the second month with YoY price increases in a row.
The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.
![Case-Shiller Price Declines](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmRUjraQu8h6qprtpn665fbH4XUZQYfX6YlT8BDYNoqYj1Xv8t-NP1REMQ27nvBFGJrKvT8b1M1QKsoke27898cizjAWNq03ID-iK2AkvF_mO6uAox1pdBQEY9J-FIaTA79oim/s320/CaseShillerMarchCities.jpg)
Prices in Las Vegas are off 56% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 5.8% from the peak.
Case Shiller is reporting on the NSA data (13 cities down), and I'm using the SA data. I'm not sure why Case-Shiller is saying prices are weakening because the tax incentive is ending. This is Q1 and March 2010 data - and the tax incentive pulled forward demand and probably supported prices. Just wait until later this year ...