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Sunday, January 24, 2010

More on Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2010 05:13:00 PM

As I mentioned in the previous summary post, the consensus is for a pretty strong Q4 GDP headline number. But this was driven by changes in inventory and probably will not last. A couple of stories ...

From Bloomberg: Growth Probably Accelerated as 2009 Ended: U.S. Economy Preview

Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.6 percent pace from October through December ... according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. ... “Inventories are going to be responsible for at least half of the growth, if not more,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York.
And from Rex Nutting at MarketWatch: Eye-popping GDP number not sustainable
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are forecasting a 5.5% annualized increase ... "Although we anticipate a large rise in GDP, underlying growth is expected to be rather tepid, held down by declines in structures, government spending, and motor vehicle sales," wrote Peter D'Antonio, an economist for Citigroup Global Markets.
Most of the boost in the economy in the fourth quarter came not from sales of goods and services but from the adjustment in the inventories of unsold goods.
For more, see beware the blip and also from Krugman: Blip.