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Sunday, January 10, 2010

China's Exports Increase, Possible Renminbi Appreciation Seen in 2010

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2010 11:44:00 AM

From Patti Waldmeir in the Financial Times: China’s exports rise as economy picks up

Exports climbed 17.7 per cent last month from a year earlier and imports shot up 55.9 per cent, according to official figures released on Sunday. ...

Andy Rothman, CLSA’s chief China economist, predicted ... that if the export recovery continues, that would give China’s leaders the political cover they need to resume renminbi appreciation by mid-year, with a possible increase of 3 per cent for 2010.
excerpted with permission
This was an easy comparison because exports collapsed last year.

The article quotes Rothman arguing that the Chinese government has been waiting for three things before resuming appreciation of the renminbi: 1) economic recovery in China, 2) stabilization in Europe and the U.S., and 3) sustained Chinese export growth (for several months). Rothman thinks the first two have happened, and that if export growth continues, the Chinese will allow the renminbi to appreciate later this year.