Tuesday, November 17, 2009

NAHB: Builder Confidence Flat in November

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2009 01:00:00 PM

Residential NAHB Housing Market Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

The housing market index (HMI) was at 17 in November. October was revised down from 18 to 17. The record low was 8 set in January.

This is very low - and this is what I've expected - a long period of builder depression.

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

HMI and Starts Correlation This second graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the November release for the HMI and the September data for starts (October starts will be released Wednesday Nov 18th).

This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month. But it appears that those expecting a sharp rebound in starts are probably wrong.

Press release from the NAHB (added): Builder Confidence Unchanged in November