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Wednesday, November 18, 2009

MBA: Purchase Applications Fall to 12 Year Low

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2009 08:30:00 PM

Another busy day and I skipped the MBA market index earlier ... note: The MBA Q3 delinquency report will be released tomorrow.

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 1.4 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index has declined for six consecutive weeks and is at its lowest level since November 1997.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.83 percent from 4.90 percent, with points increasing to 1.17 from 1.03 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the lowest contract rate observed by the survey since mid-May of this year.
It appears the post home buyer tax credit slump is in full swing. The tax credit was extended and the eligibility expanded, but interest will probably wane (you can only pull so much demand forward).

MBA Purchase Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 2002.

Note: The increase in 2007 was due to the method used to construct the index: a combination of lender failures, and borrowers filing multiple applications pushed up the index in 2007, even though activity was actually declining.