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Tuesday, July 14, 2009

More Inventory Correction

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2009 10:10:00 AM

The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report from the Census Bureau today showed more evidence of declining inventories.

Inventory Correction Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The Census Bureau reported:

Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,368.1 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.1%) from April 2009 and down 8.0 percent (±0.4%) from May 2008.
The above graph shows the 3 month change (annualized) in manufacturers’ and trade inventories. The inventory correction was slow to start in this recession, but inventories are now declining sharply.

Inventory Correction However, even with the sharp decline in inventories, the inventory to sales ratio has only declined to 1.42 in May - since sales have fallen sharply too.

There has been a race between declining sales and declining inventory. Even as sales start to stabilize (appears to be happening), inventory levels are still too high compared to the lower sales levels, and further inventory reductions are probably coming.