by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2009 10:00:00 AM
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Existing Home Sales increase in June
The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Up Again
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in June from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May, but are 0.2 percent lower than the 4.90 million-unit level in June 2008.
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Total housing inventory at the end of June fell 0.7 percent to 3.82 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.8-month supply in May.
![Existing Home Sales](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqeMo02Hpq9ho8vcbz5bYnoeuiQkC47Sap8ooPbgtJ6jCDvkohLfToJEPMTsV6lRePQbJqQVyn6cYprdhBoDnpOgfMMu5XbQlyXJLek0W0GbJrz7yShpkwlGVz_IAHx21l6QyL1Q/s320/EHSJune2009.jpg)
The first graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.
Sales in June 2009 (4.89 million SAAR) were 3.6% higher than last month, and were 0.2% lower than June 2008 (4.90 million SAAR).
Here is another way to look at existing homes sales: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):
![Existing Home Sales NSA](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxXnk7tWjjlpc3hkKHSUmMjfdpPmMvdodtVHbCaEO9F1Qc8KF9rvVurd_LzxcyrFyeiywdj_ucXVMaY07eLdoeoQXv8hxKVmwuYIHhKp-NC-1Ju80UNl1Ve7JXuntpZLuevzKqPQ/s320/EHSJuneNSA2009.jpg)
It's important to note that the NAR says about one-third of these sales were foreclosure resales or short sales. Although these are real transactions, this means activity (ex-distressed sales) is much lower.
![Existing Home Inventory](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpWPIITwXaw3Cpg7nM65h7FD9rKM_HIU-B39E9FuUUq90W-DsVooKI60SRtxMh_weVz5ROlO9vnuHjOzxtkE_b4NLlCDLkw5yqbswdYCakx58qjvmzJdSWhE2tRwzyT4lfkQIDIQ/s320/EHSJuneInventory2009.jpg)
Typically inventory increases in June, and peaks in July or August. This decrease in inventory was a little unusual.
Also, many REOs (bank owned properties) are included in the inventory because they are listed - but not all. Recently there have been stories about a substantial number of unlisted REOs and other shadow inventory - so this inventory number is probably low.
![Existing Home Sales Months of Supply](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-WoYsfNQcnFCieqeH7OfUfWy8HqoylPmAfrR4fZQKP93gCbSgVojO96fjzakkGCL3Qrpv5V62NXSQwMzJFWcaCqVf2muHV2UnfTPzujbA5OnwFESeIbX88K94hQqOO6Hqez7K7A/s320/EHSJuneMonths2009.jpg)
Months of supply declined to 9.4 months.
Sales increased slightly, and inventory decreased, so "months of supply" decreased. A normal market has under 6 months of supply, so this is still very high.
I'll have more soon ...
Note: New Home sales will be released on Monday.